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The 100 busiest Polymarket markets right now. Open one for the YES/NO split, our estimate where we have it and the resolution rules.

Polymarket, updated 11:24 UTC
Polymarket markets, busiest first
MarketYesSignal
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?OtherVol $2.7MNov 47¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?OtherVol $2.2MNov 494¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?OtherVol $828KOct 3192¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?OtherVol $423KJan 16¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherOtherVol $410KNov 4<1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?OtherVol $268KNov 1<1¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?OtherVol $252KJan 12¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?OtherVol $245KNov 978¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?OtherVol $225KNov 489¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?OtherVol $209KOct 3075¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?OtherVol $203KNov 462¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?OtherVol $202KOct 2997¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?OtherVol $178KOct 3195¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?OtherVol $177KNov 18¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?OtherVol $173KJan 140¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?OtherVol $164KJan 118¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?OtherVol $151KNov 11¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?OtherVol $137KNov 390¢
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?OtherVol $130KOct 30<1¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?OtherVol $129KNov 414¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?OtherVol $124KOct 3026¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?OtherVol $123KJan 111¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?OtherVol $121KJan 199¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?OtherVol $119KJan 153¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?OtherVol $117KJan 13¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?OtherVol $111KNov 439¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?OtherVol $110KNov 1<1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?OtherVol $108KJan 13¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?OtherVol $105KNov 3>99¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?OtherVol $104KNov 1<1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?OtherVol $101KNov 12¢

Prices are cents per $1 YES share. A lamp lights when our estimate and the price are 5¢ or more apart. The model covers crypto price markets only and can be wrong.