Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No estimate for this one: our model covers crypto price markets only. Here you get the market price as is.
Who holds the ball
The bar is the market price: Yes on the left, No on the right.
- Volume 24h
- $188,713
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
How we got the estimate
No estimate for this market. Our model covers crypto price markets with a clear strike and date; here you get the Polymarket price only.
Resolution rules
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Original rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.