Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No estimate for this one: our model covers crypto price markets only. Here you get the market price as is.
Who holds the ball
The bar is the market price: Yes on the left, No on the right.
- Volume 24h
- $229,645
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
How we got the estimate
No estimate for this market. Our model covers crypto price markets with a clear strike and date; here you get the Polymarket price only.
Resolution rules
Sign in to get the rules explained in plain words.
Original rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.