Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Price and estimate are less than 5¢ apart, so the lamp stays off. An estimate, not advice.
Who holds the ball
The bar is the market price: Yes on the left, No on the right. The white marker is our estimate.
- Volume 24h
- $112,446
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
How we got the estimate
Spot BTC $77,637 from Coinbase, Binance. Annual volatility 33%, measured on the last 7 days of hourly candles. Lognormal model with no drift: it ignores news and fat tails, so treat it as a reference point, not a forecast.
Resolution rules
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Original rules text
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.