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PoliticsEnds Nov 4, 2026Updated 11:20 UTC

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Yes24¢
Our estimate--

No estimate for this one: our model covers crypto price markets only. Here you get the market price as is.

No77¢

Who holds the ball

Yes 24%77% No

The bar is the market price: Yes on the left, No on the right.

Volume 24h
$170,861
Ends
Nov 4, 2026
Polymarket, updated 11:20 UTC

How we got the estimate

No estimate for this market. Our model covers crypto price markets with a clear strike and date; here you get the Polymarket price only.

Resolution rules

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Original rules text

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.