Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?
Our model puts Yes 9¢ below the market price. A signal from an estimate, not advice.
Who holds the ball
The bar is the market price: Yes on the left, No on the right. The white marker is our estimate.
- Volume 24h
- $111,670
- Ends
- Oct 30, 2026
How we got the estimate
Spot BTC $77,637 from Coinbase, Binance. Annual volatility 33%, measured on the last 7 days of hourly candles. Lognormal model with no drift: it ignores news and fat tails, so treat it as a reference point, not a forecast.
Resolution rules
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Original rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.